HE COLD WAR HAS BEEN OVER FOR 30 YEARS, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the world’s tanks today. The armored fighting vehicles of the 1970s and 1980s are still around: America’s M1 Abrams, Russia’s T-72 and T-80, Germany’s Leopard 2, Britain’s Challenger, and Israel’s Merkava. These machines may have been upgraded over the years, but today’s tanks would still look and feel familiar to a Cold War-era tanker.
But time catches up with all things—even 70-ton steel beasts built to withstand the blast of shells and rockets. By 2050, a new generation of tanks will replace the vehicles from the days of Ronald Reagan’s administration.
The new tanks won’t be totally unfamiliar. They will probably look like today’s vehicles, with rotating turrets and caterpillar tracks. There may also be a family resemblance: instead of incurring the huge expense of developing and manufacturing a brand-new design, nations such as the U.S. and Germany are building from existing models.
Nonetheless, tanks in the mid-21st century will have plenty of new features. They will be smaller and lighter, and thus more mobile and easier to transport by air or sea. They will have hybrid or electric engines, launch their own drones, and have defensive systems to stop enemy drones. They will also be highly digital and automated, including extensive reliance on artificial intelligence.
“This means incorporating advances in energy systems, armor, camouflage and other protection technologies, onboard sensors, digital battle management systems, and improved firepower,” says James Black, assistant director for defense at the RAND Europe think tank. “It also means AI and autonomy, both in terms of automating more of the tasks of a tank crew, and in terms of pairing crewed vehicles with uncrewed ground or air systems to fight as a system of systems.”